EU Aluminium Import Needs

A data-driven eBriefing on the European Union's aluminium import needs and external supply, analysing major supplier countries, import prices, sourcing competitiveness and the growing impact of CBAM on access to the EU market.

Executive Summary

Aluminium is a strategically important input for European industry, including automotive manufacturing, aerospace, construction, electrical equipment, renewable energy technologies, packaging and defence-related supply chains.

The European Union remains strongly dependent on external aluminium supplies. In 2024, the EU imported approximately €29.5 billion of aluminium and related articles under HS Chapter 76. Norway was the largest external supplier in value terms, followed by China, Türkiye, Iceland and Switzerland.

From 1 January 2026, the definitive phase of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) introduced an additional carbon-related dimension into aluminium sourcing decisions.

Import competitiveness therefore increasingly depends not only on the commercial price of aluminium, but also on the origin of the product, the production route, verified embedded emissions, applicable default values, the EU ETS-linked CBAM certificate price, and any eligible carbon price already effectively paid in the country of production.

1. EU Aluminium Demand and Import Dependence

Eurostat reported that EU imports of aluminium and related articles reached €29.5 billion in 2024, compared with €18.4 billion of exports, producing an EU trade deficit of approximately €11.1 billion.

Leading EU aluminium suppliers by import value — 2024

Source: Eurostat. These figures cover HS Chapter 76 — aluminium and articles thereof — and must not be interpreted as CN 7601 prices or volumes.

2. Unwrought Aluminium (CN 7601): The Core Import Benchmark

EUALU uses CN 7601 — unwrought aluminium as its principal benchmark product because it provides a much more meaningful basis for comparing major primary and secondary aluminium suppliers than the entire HS Chapter 76.

Finished and semi-finished products such as plates, sheets, foil, profiles and tubes should be analysed separately because their customs values and CBAM default values differ materially.

3. Comparing EU Aluminium Import Prices

The resulting figure is expressed in €/tonne. It is an average customs unit value, not an LME quotation and not necessarily the contractual price paid by an individual buyer.

Eurostat international trade statistics report imports on a CIF basis — cost, insurance and freight to the EU border.

4. How CBAM Changes EU Aluminium Sourcing

The definitive CBAM regime has applied since 1 January 2026. EU importers covered by the mechanism must declare embedded emissions associated with CBAM goods and surrender the corresponding number of CBAM certificates in accordance with the applicable rules.

The price of CBAM certificates is linked to the EU ETS allowance price. For 2026, the European Commission publishes one price for each calendar quarter.

5. The Carbon Price Component: 2026 CBAM Certificate Prices

One CBAM certificate corresponds to one tonne of CO₂ equivalent for the purposes of the mechanism. From 2027, the Commission will calculate and publish CBAM certificate prices weekly.

6. Carbon Intensity of External Suppliers

Where the applicable CBAM rules require the use of default values, Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621, as corrected by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740, establishes country- and product-specific values.

For aluminium, the regulatory default value receives a 10% mark-up in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028 under the rules currently applicable.

7. Comparing the Carbon Exposure of EU Suppliers

The following table compares selected major or strategically relevant suppliers of unwrought aluminium. The figures are based on the official 2026 CBAM default values for CN 7601 where applicable.

Carbon-value reference = 2026 CBAM default value including the applicable 10% mark-up × Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price of €75.28/tCO₂e. This is a comparative analytical indicator and must not be interpreted as the final CBAM amount payable. The actual number of certificates to be surrendered is subject to the CBAM free-allocation adjustment and other applicable rules.

8. From Import Price to Carbon-Adjusted Competitiveness

The comparison immediately shows that the carbon component can alter the relative attractiveness of suppliers even before the final CBAM liability is calculated.

Under the 2026 default-value methodology, one tonne of CN 7601 from India, the UAE or Bahrain carries a carbon-value reference of about €155/t, while the corresponding reference for Mozambique is approximately €265/t.

The difference is approximately €110 per tonne of aluminium.

9. Verified Emissions and Supplier Competitiveness

Country default values are not a substitute for verified installation data.

Two aluminium producers located in the same country may use different electricity sources, smelting technologies, anode processes and precursor inputs. Their actual embedded emissions can therefore differ significantly.

This creates an increasingly important commercial incentive for low-emission producers to provide reliable, verifiable emissions data to their EU customers.

10. The Effective Cost of Imported Aluminium

EUALU therefore analyses supplier competitiveness through several layers rather than through the customs import price alone.

Where relevant, the analysis should also take into account transport, financing, insurance, logistics and other identifiable border-related costs.

11. Carbon Pricing in Supplier Countries

CBAM rules allow an importer to claim a reduction where it can demonstrate that a carbon price has already been effectively paid in the country of origin for the emissions embedded in the imported goods, subject to the applicable legal and evidentiary conditions.

Consequently, the relevant comparison is not simply between countries with and without a carbon-pricing system. What matters is the carbon price effectively attributable to the imported goods and recognised under the CBAM rules.

12. India as an Emerging EU Aluminium Supplier

India is particularly relevant for EUALU because its aluminium industry combines significant production capacity with growing trade ambitions in the European market.

For CN 7601, the official CBAM default value used in this comparison is 1.870 tCO₂e/t, rising to 2.057 tCO₂e/t in 2026 after the applicable 10% default-value mark-up.

At the Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price of €75.28/tCO₂e, this produces a gross carbon-value reference of approximately €154.87 per tonne of unwrought aluminium.

For Indian producers, the strategic issue is therefore not only tariff access to the EU. The ability to document verified installation-specific emissions and demonstrate lower carbon intensity may become a direct competitive advantage.

13. India: Trade Opportunities and CBAM Constraints

Preferential customs treatment and CBAM are separate regulatory mechanisms.

A future preferential tariff under the EU–India Free Trade Agreement would therefore not, by itself, eliminate CBAM obligations for Indian aluminium covered by the mechanism.

14. Norway and Iceland: The CBAM-Free Supply Advantage

Norway and Iceland occupy a special position in the EU aluminium supply chain.

Under Annex III of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, goods originating in Norway and Iceland are outside the territorial scope of CBAM.

Their competitive position should therefore not be compared with CBAM-covered suppliers by assigning them an artificial emissions cost. For the purposes of EUALU's CBAM comparison, their CBAM exposure is shown as €0.

15. Comparing EU Aluminium Supply Sources

A useful sourcing comparison requires more than one indicator. EUALU therefore separates trade, carbon and regulatory variables.

16. EU Supplier Competitiveness Matrix — CN 7601

The matrix is a sourcing-intelligence tool, not a customs or CBAM assessment for an individual shipment. “Carbon-value reference” uses the Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price of €75.28/tCO₂e and the applicable 2026 default value including the 10% mark-up. It is not the final CBAM liability.

17. Why Verified Emissions Data Affect Market Access

CBAM creates a direct connection between environmental data quality and market competitiveness.

A producer whose verified actual emissions are lower than the applicable default value can potentially offer its EU customers a more attractive carbon profile.

Consequently, emissions monitoring, verification and data exchange are becoming part of the commercial relationship between aluminium producers and European buyers.

18. EU Import Needs Beyond Unwrought Aluminium

EUALU monitors other aluminium products separately, including:

CN 7603 — aluminium powders and flakes
CN 7604 — aluminium bars, rods and profiles
CN 7605 — aluminium wire
CN 7606 — aluminium plates, sheets and strip
CN 7607 — aluminium foil
CN 7608 — aluminium tubes and pipes
and other aluminium products falling within the CBAM scope.

These products should not be mixed with CN 7601 when calculating import unit values or supplier competitiveness because processing stages and embedded-emissions values differ.

20. Implications for EU Aluminium Buyers

EU aluminium importers should increasingly request clear information on the installation producing the goods, production route, embedded direct emissions, relevant precursor emissions, verification status, applicable CN code and any carbon price effectively paid in the country of production.

Procurement decisions based only on the quoted price per tonne risk overlooking a growing component of the effective EU sourcing cost.

21. Requirements for Non-EU Suppliers

Chapter updated: 2 October 2026. This is a screening matrix by product family and intended use, not an exhaustive shipment-specific legal assessment.

21.1. CBAM verification and practical contacts

Meeting CBAM obligations does not authorise a product to be sold in the EU. Customs, chemical, product-safety and sector-specific requirements must be assessed separately.

For actual embedded emissions, independent verification by a verifier accredited for CBAM by an EU national accreditation body is required. A producer's self-declaration or a general ISO greenhouse-gas certificate does not replace this verification. Official default values are an alternative under the applicable rules; they are not self-certified actual emissions. Verification concerns the production installation and relevant emissions data, rather than a general certificate approving every product made by a company.

Indian verification companies can apply to EU accreditation bodies accepting third-country applicants. Before commissioning work, ask for the CBAM accreditation certificate, its validity and scope covering aluminium, and CBAM Registry registration. The Commission's page currently announces that the verifier list will be published; this edition does not identify an Indian organisation as already CBAM-accredited without documentary confirmation.

• Commission: verification rules, accreditation status and forthcoming verifier directory .
• NABCB, Quality Council of India: [email protected]; +91-11-26186680. NABCB provides national accreditation and information on Indian verification bodies. NABCB accreditation alone must not be represented as EU CBAM accreditation.
• CBAM Registry and third-country installation portal : installation data exchange with authorised importers and accredited verifiers. Registry registration is not itself accreditation or product approval.

21.2. Market-access screening by product and intended use

Start with the exact CN/TARIC code, composition, manufacturing stage, origin, destination Member State and intended use. Check the current rules at the date of import and placing on the market. CE marking applies only where the relevant EU legislation requires it; aluminium content alone does not create a CE-marking obligation.

21.3. A readiness dataset for exporters

AL Circle and industry organisations could invite companies to provide a voluntary, confidential survey covering installations, products/CN codes, EU export volumes, monitoring systems, use of actual or default values, verifier accreditation and scope, verification stage, missing product documentation and planned corrective actions. Publish aggregated results with sample size, coverage and reporting period, distinguishing company-reported information from independently verified evidence. A directory of verifiers cannot establish what proportion of producers is ready, and company counts alone do not measure the share of export volume covered.

21.4. Official sources for product-specific checks

• Commission Access2Markets: product requirements and its My Trade Assistant for exact product/origin/destination searches.
• Your Europe: when CE marking is required .
• ECHA: REACH restrictions .
• Commission: food-contact legislation .

22. Opportunities for Indian Aluminium Producers

For Indian aluminium producers, EU market access will increasingly depend on the interaction of trade policy, industrial competitiveness and carbon regulation.

The EU–India trade relationship may improve tariff conditions, but CBAM creates a separate competitive variable. Indian producers able to document efficient, lower-emission production may therefore be better positioned than suppliers relying on regulatory default values.

23. EUALU Supply Monitoring

During the subscription period, EUALU will monitor:

• EU import values and quantities for key aluminium CN codes;
• supplier-level average customs unit values;
• changes in major countries of origin;
• quarterly and weekly CBAM certificate prices;
• changes to CBAM default values and benchmarks;
• verified-emissions methodology and guidance;
• carbon-price deduction rules;
• EU trade measures affecting aluminium;
• EU–India trade developments relevant to aluminium;
• changes in the competitive position of major suppliers.

24. Key EU Aluminium Supply Indicators

25. Outlook for EU Aluminium Supply

Aluminium sourcing in Europe can no longer be analysed solely through commodity prices and customs tariffs.

The definitive CBAM regime introduces a new measurable variable: the carbon characteristics of imported aluminium.

The 2026 default-value comparison already illustrates significant differences between supplier origins. For CN 7601, the carbon-value reference calculated at the Q2 2026 certificate price ranges from approximately €155/t for India, UAE and Bahrain to approximately €265/t for Mozambique, while Norway and Iceland remain outside CBAM scope.

However, country defaults do not determine the competitiveness of every individual producer. Verified installation-level emissions can substantially change the picture.

The central objective of EUALU is therefore to combine trade price, supplier origin, carbon exposure and regulatory treatment into a single sourcing-intelligence framework.

Main Official Sources

Eurostat — International trade in goods

European Commission — Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

European Commission — Price of CBAM certificates

European Commission — CBAM legislation and guidance

EUR-Lex — Regulation (EU) 2023/956 establishing CBAM

EUR-Lex — Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740

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Acronyms and Abbreviations

The following acronyms and abbreviations are used throughout this eBriefing.